Value Inflection Points

I have recently been on a pharma R&D productivity tear, building modern models to analyze leverage points, including value inflection points (Simon Birksø Larsen).

Along the way, I found two posts by Ibrahim Mian, MD that took unusual but insightful perspectives -we need more of that! Links in the comments. I decided to take Ibrahim's data and offer some visuals I find useful:

1️⃣ The usual P(technical success) by clinical phase, which clearly shows some modality and therapeutic area outliers

2️⃣ Residual risk when entering a phase (how much risk do you still need to discharge to get to NDA/BLA)?

3️⃣ Risk discharge by phase (simply the delta of P(TS) between end and beginning of phase)

Have fun!