Winners and Losers in the Upcoming Mega IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) spacexipo.bonabeauapps.com

🚀 In view of the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, I wanted to understand how the rest of the US stock market might be impacted, specifically the top stocks comprising the indices (e.g., Nasdaq 100, S&P 500) that will include SpaceX very soon after the IPO after recent changes to inclusion criteria. Forced buying will alter money flows at levels never seen before. Another intriguing question, under the very reasonable assumption that SpaceX is slightly overvalued (2-4x), who will be holding the bag 👜? And since we're at it, let's consider some other (tiny) upcoming IPOs: OpenAI and Anthropic. There again, how will forced buying and bagholding turn out? OpenAI and Anthropic have a different bagholding makeup. 🤖 I built a mathematical model and simulated it under a range of scenarios, preprint coming soon. In the meantime, go play with the simulation to see if you might be the one holding the bag.

A steep hike up memory lane Final comment on the a16z charts. The scale of the memory run is mind blowing. Also, Raphaelle d'Ornano saw it coming months ago. As the post notes, "there is no real hierarchy in the list of AI-infrastructure related shortages, from power, and skilled labor, to chips (GPUs and CPUs) and memory. An historic surge in demand, backstopped by ~$1T in capex, will have that sort of effect, but memory is the most prominent recent addition to the list." NAND, really? "Prices for both DDR5 and DDR4 memory chips have skyrocketed, since the end of last year, not coincidentally with a ~25% rise in PPI for the “computers” category. The bidding war isn’t limited to DRAM (especially High Bandwidth Memory), which is particularly important to model training, but traditional steady-state NAND, as well. As of March, monthly contract prices for DRAM had more than tripled yoy, while NAND prices grew by a more modest ~2X."